Why do balance changes always cater to high ladder?
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2021.12.07 03:19 MeezyTheThird Why do balance changes always cater to high ladder?
I know this may be annoying but I’ve been playing consistently for two years now and I feel like mid ladder where I’d assume most players are is completely forgotten about in balance changes. I don’t understand why they always have to cater to high ladder usage rate and win rates. It would be nice for at least one balance update per year that changes up the mid ladder meta in a meaningful way.
Maybe it’s just me being fed up but it feels like the movie Groundhog Day every time I try playing ladder. I’ve been seeing the same toxic trash from the last two years and I just want something new. Something refreshing and fun to play against.
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2021.12.07 03:19 Moss81- Bill: We’re running the ball. Mac: But coach wouldn’t it be better if we ran the ba- Bill:
2021.12.07 03:19 america---- Why. Just why.
2021.12.07 03:19 Sk-yline1 Greenland is really small and Africa is really big
2021.12.07 03:19 ShadyMabel My Artemis altar with the new candle I just made for her
2021.12.07 03:19 ImaginaryBeach1 Rooftop Concert is a bit cringe
Watching Get Back … and these multi-millionaires acting like they are naughty school boys is just painful to watch.
The poor cops having to enforce the law who clearly don’t want to be there. And they just goad them like they are an authority figure - when clearly the Beatles are the authority figures in this situation.
I mean if they just said to someone at city hall “we are the Beatles we are shooting a movie from 12-1 with amplified sound” - it would have been no problem.
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2021.12.07 03:19 unusedblanket what was the scariest thing thats happen to you?
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2021.12.07 03:19 Ehrenburger Me irl
2021.12.07 03:19 Practical-Block-8016 Question for those who have the Berserk Deluxe Edition?
Is it easy to read or is it really heavy ? Would I able to read it in bed or other such places ? It would be my first time reading berserk .
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2021.12.07 03:19 screechy1 Thoughts on how to cure "idea block"
I'm dealing with a unique dilemma. I am not in a space of writer's block, or any equivalent of that. However, I feel like I've been scraping the bottom of the barrel for ideas I've already had and such. I've been trying to think of an aspiring idea and have yet to think of anything. How do you guys recommend I remedy this?
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2021.12.07 03:19 procryptoclass Top Play-To-Earn NFT Games For December 2021
2021.12.07 03:19 TarunFuleraJi Top 11 Important Uses Of Math In Everyday Life
2021.12.07 03:19 yoav_boaz At what time in the day do you see this post?
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2021.12.07 03:19 Paul-Belgium Ensemble, c.1885, American.
2021.12.07 03:19 eaglebtc /r/CellHurtingJuice, a parody of /r/BoneHurtingJuice, created in a post about a single-cell organism dying under a microscope
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2021.12.07 03:19 WolfishMule9528 Anyone want to talk?
Feeling talkative tonight.
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2021.12.07 03:19 alper Episode 34
2021.12.07 03:19 Scorpio-94 The same night my best friend got engaged… was the same night I was groped by the fiancé’s best friend.
On the night of the engagement, we all went out to celebrate at the bars. At the beginning, we were casually talking. He (31M) was drinking while I (28F) was not. I spent all night trying to move away from him but he kept on changing his seat to be by my side.
The groping started from my back to my leg. He even started touching my hair. My heart literally dropped and I froze. A part of me was like he’s drunk and is super touchy? I don’t know?
- So I played it off, because he was starting to be really aggressive with his touching and leaning in.
- That’s when I went I was like do you you want to sit down? Do you need my seat?
- After sitting down, he turns to me and literally says looking me dead in the eyes, “ I’m not trying to take advantage of you.. I would never.” He was like look at me.. I would never take advantage of you.
- That’s when I was like what the actual f***. So you know what you were doing when you were touching me inappropriately? So I felt uncomfortable the whole fucking night and wanted to throw up.
Please note I also have a fiancée that he well aware of who was not present that night. My bff and her fiancé would literally kill him if they find out. And I didn’t want to ruin the beautiful engagement.
I have no one to talk to about this 🥺Any advice on what I should do? Should I confront him (via text since I’m flying out tomorrow?) or do you think he doesn’t even remember it?
I’m so scared that it will ruin our relationship since we will be playing such a large role in the wedding and the future.
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2021.12.07 03:19 EugeneOlivier71717 What is the craziest thing that is written in the Bible?
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2021.12.07 03:19 Reddit_user_robbie gn
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2021.12.07 03:19 ezraterner Togzhan | instagram: zhazylbekova_t | 2 photo
2021.12.07 03:19 schematicorb Would you like a Kevin Abstract song with Eminem ?
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2021.12.07 03:19 Dratini_Boi NAHOBINO-- art i made a few days ago
2021.12.07 03:19 captmorgan50 Nassim Taleb Fooled by Randomness, The Black Swan, and AntiFragile Book summaries
Fooled by Randomness
The Black Swan
- Survivorship Bias means you don't hear from the losers on a topic, you only hear from the winners.
- Watch out judging a person by their results because history will only show you the winners. You won't hear the stories of the losers
- Over short terms, you see variance, not returns. Don't monitor your portfolio on a daily basis
- AFTER an event has occurred, it is easy to make a story as to why it happened and why people should have seen it. But it is difficult to see in advance BEFORE it happens
- Events are more random than we think
- Negative pangs cause a 2.5x more emotional response than a positive one
- It is not how likely an event is to happen that matters, it is how much is made or lost when it happens that should be the consideration
- Maximize your profit expectancy, not probability
- I try to benefit from "rare events", events that do not tend to repeat themselves frequently
- I believe that rare events are not fairly valued, and that the rarer the event, the more undervalued it will be in price
- Investors for pure emotional reasons, will be drawn into strategies that experience rare but large variations.
- Pascal's Wager – The optimal strategy for humans is to believe in God because if God does exist the believer will be rewarded and if he doesn't exist, the believer has nothing to lose.
- IE - Inequality of outcomes, don't try to pick up nickels in front of a train
- There is no point in searching for patterns that are available to everyone; once detected, they would be self-canceling
- "One cannot judge a performance in any given field by the results, but by the costs of the alternative (i.e. if history played out in a different way). Such substitutes courses of events are called alternative histories. Cleary the quality of a decision cannot be solely judged based on its outcome.
- Past events will always look less random than they were (hindsight bias)
- Probability almost never presents itself as a mathematical problem or brain teaser
- No one accepts randomness in their success, only in their failure
- Take into account the costs of mistakes
- Bad information is worse than no information at all
- 5 traits of a Market Fool
- Overestimating accuracy of data or overconfidence
- Getting married to positions
- Changing story
- No plans for taking losses or exit strategy
- Denial of luck and randomness
- 3 attributes for a black swan
- A black swan is an outlier, as in outside the realm of regular expectations
- Carries extreme impact
- Human nature makes us concoct explanations for its occurrence _ after _ the fact
- Rare, Extreme Impact and Retrospective predictability
- There are great problems with trying to forecast the future, given limited knowledge of the past
- Black swans being unpredictable, we need to adjust to their existence rather than naively try to predict them
- The human mind suffers from 3 ailments as it comes into contact with history
- The illusion of understanding or how everyone thinks they know what is going on in a world that is more complicated (or random) than they realize
- Retrospective distortion or how we assess matter only after the fact (history seems clearer and more organized in books than in empirical reality)
- Overvaluation of factual information
- Taleb realized that he was totally incapable of predicting market prices, but that others were just as incapable as him but did not know it or did not know that they were taking massive risks. Most traders were just picking up pennies in front of a steamroller
- 2 types of randomness analogy
- Mediocristan – land of average
- Extremistan – land of black swans
- Mediocristan - When your sample is large; no single instance will significantly change the aggregate or total. The largest observation will remain impressive, but insignificant to the sum. IE – Human weights, Human heights, car accidents, IQ
- Black swans don't occur here. Once you collect enough data should reveal all you need to know and if you do have a surprise, it won't be consequential. Collecting data here is ok. What you can learn from data in Mediocristan augments very rapidly with the supply of information. You can predict here.
- Extemistan – inequalities are such that one single observation can disproportionately impact the aggregate or the total. IE – wealth, income, book sales per author, financial markets, commodity prices, inflation rates, economic data
- Black swans do occur here. You will have trouble figuring out the average from any sample since it can depend so much on one single observation. Be suspicious of the knowledge of the data you collect here. Knowledge here grows slowly and erratically with the addition of data. Difficult or even impossible to predict.
- Black Swan Example – Consider a turkey that is fed every day. Every single feeding will firm up the bird's belief that it is the general rule of life to be fed every day by friendly humans "looking out for my best interests". But the Wednesday before Thanksgiving something unexpected will happen to the turkey. It will occur a revision of belief. Ironically, the turkeys feeling of safety had reached a maximum when the risk was the highest.
- The turkey had "learned backwards" from observation
- oHow can we know the future, given finite knowledge of the past?
- Something may have worked in the past until, well it doesn't. You don't drive your car looking in the rear-view mirror.
- Before 1987, the biggest single day drop in the Dow was 13% so some people incorrectly concluded from the past that they most the Dow could drop in a day was 13%. It dropped 22% on "Black Monday"
- Positive Black Swans take time to show their effects while negative black swans happen very quickly
- Absence of evidence is not evidence of absence
- Naïve Empiricism – We tend to have a tendency to look for instances that confirm our story and our vision of the world and these instances are easy to find. You take past instances that corroborate your theories and treat them as evidence.
- Negative Empiricism - The way to counter your Naïve Empiricism is to understand that a series of corroborative facts is not Necessarily evidence. Seeing White Swans does not confirm the nonexistence of Black Swans.
- The error of confirmation - We are quick to draw conclusions from what we have seen to what is unseen.
- Confirmation Bias – our natural tendency to look only for corroboration of our ideas.
- To counter this George Soros was known when taking a financial bet to keep looking for evidence or instances to prove his initial theory wrong
- Narrative Fallacy – this is associated with our vulnerability to overinterpretation and our predilection for compact stories over raw truths. It severely distorts our mental representation of the world, especially rare events
- We tend to look at sequences of facts and weave them into an explanation. Explanations bind these facts together. Making them easy to remember. They help us make more sense of the facts. Because our brains can't store all that information. Stories stick, statistics don't
- The more you summarize, the more order you put in, the less randomness. The same condition that makes us simplify pushes us to think that the world is less random that it actually is.
- In some strategies, you gamble dollars to win a succession of pennies while appearing to be winning all the time. In other strategies, you risk a succession of pennies to win dollars. In other words, you bet either that the black swan will or won't happen. These require completely different mind sets.
- Most people have a preference for number 1
- Some bets in which one wins big but infrequently, yet loses small but frequently, are worth making if others are suckers for them and if you have the personal and intellectual stamina
- We favor the narrated. We are not manufactured to understand abstract matters, we need context. Randomness and uncertainty are abstractions. We respect what has happened, ignoring what could have happened.
- Our ideas are sticky: once we produce a theory, we are not likely to change our minds. When you develop your opinions on the basis of weak evidence, you will have difficulty interpreting subsequent information that contradicts these opinions. So those who delay developing their theories are better off
- We humans are the victims of an asymmetry in the perception of random events. We attribute our success to our skills, and our failures to external events outside our control, namely to randomness. We feel responsible for the good, but not for the bad.
- Taleb's Perfect World – "Think of someone heavily introspective, tortured by the awareness of his own ignorance. He lacks the courage of the idiot, yet has the rare guts to say "I don't know." He does not mind looking like a fool. He hesitates, he will not commit, and he agonizes over the consequences of being wrong. He introspects, introspects, and introspects until he reaches physical and mental exhaustion. This does not mean he lacks confidence, only that he holds his own knowledge to be suspect.
- Louis Pasteur – "Luck favors the prepared"
- The black swan asymmetry allows you to be confident about what is wrong, not about what you believe is right
- So, what to do if you can't predict in a world with Black Swans??
- Avoid unnecessary dependence on large scale harmful predictions. Be fooled in small matters, not large. Example – don't accept the government forecast for SS payments 50 years from now.
- Do not listen to economic forecasters or to predictions
- Be prepared! Be prepared for all relevant eventualities
- People are often ashamed of losses, so they engage in strategies that produce very little volatility but contain the risk of large loss.
- Barbell Strategy
- Be as hyper-conservative and hyper-aggressive and you can instead of being mildly aggressive or conservative
- Put 80-90% in extremely safe investments – (Example – T-Bills)
- Put the other 10-20% in extremely speculative investments (Example – VC)
- You have no risk on one side and high risk on the other, which equals out to medium risk. This minimizes your risk of negative black swans and exposures you to positive black swans
- Put yourself in situations where favorable consequences are much larger than unfavorable ones
- I am very aggressive when I can gain exposure to positive Black Swans and very conservative when I am under threat from a negative Black Swan
- Fragile-Robust-Antifragile. Fragile wants tranquility, Antifragile grows from disorder and robust doesn't care too much
- Some things benefit from shocks; they thrive and grow when exposed to volatility, randomness, disorder, and stressors and love adventure, risk, and uncertainty. This is Antifragile. The opposite is fragile
- Antifragility is beyond resilience or robustness. The resilient resists shocks and stays the same; the antifragile gets stronger
- I would rather be dumb and antifragile than smart and fragile
- It is much easier to figure out if something is fragile than to predict the occurrence of an event that may harm it.
- Asymmetry: anything that has more upside than downside from random events is antifragile; the reverse is fragile
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2021.12.07 03:19 B0ssc0 Concerning levels of heavy metals found in Indigenous people living beside world's biggest manganese-producing mine